EC 228 02: Econometric Methods (Spring 2018)
Stokes Hall 295S: T Th (10:30 – 11:45)
Christopher Maxwell Maloney Hall, 337
firstname.lastname@example.org Office Hrs: TTh 3+
http://www.cmaxxsports.com & by arrangement
This is an introductory course in the use of econometric methods, with an emphasis on empirical applications. Our focus will be on learning to do econometrics, not just learning econometrics.
While the course will cover the development of the formal tools of econometric analysis (simple and multiple regression analysis, estimation, inference, categorical variables, functional forms and so forth), we will also spend quite a bit of time on empirical methods (posing questions, building datasets, running regressions, supplementing datasets, running more regressions, etc … until we can confidently say something about the questions at hand). As such, an important part of the course will be a set of empirical Exercises and an empirical research project in which students will be building their own datasets and applying the various econometric methods developed in the course.
Peer tutors: @ Connors Family Learning Center (stay tuned)
Prerequisites: An introductory statistics course such as EC 151. No exceptions. I will also assume that students have an understanding of basic Excel (which will be used at times to assemble datasets and verify calculations) and basic calculus. I do not assume that anyone has previous exposure to Stata, the computer language that we will be using to run regressions (but you will be better for it if you have seen Stata before). (See below for more about Stata.)
Course reference text:
· Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, Cengage Learning.
I have deliberately not listed the edition; if you decide to purchase the text, feel free to buy the 2nd (2002), 3rd (2006), 4th (2008), 5th (2012), or 6th (2015) editions. A copy of the text will be placed on reserve at the O’Neill Library.
Important Note: I do not follow the text closely. I will be distributing lecture notes for most of the material covered in class.
Some additional texts: There is no need to purchase any of these (most are available at O’Neill). I list them just because sometimes it is useful to see a different presentation of the material.
· Angrist, Joshua D. and Jörn-Steffen Pischke, Mastering 'Metrics: The Path from Cause to Effect, 2014.
· Stock, James H. and Mark W. Watson, Introduction to Econometrics, 3rd ed., Addison-Wesley, 2014.
· Studenmund, A.H., Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide, 7th ed., Pearson, 2016.
· Bailey, Michael A., Real Econometrics: The Right Tools to Answer Important Questions, Oxford, 2016.
· Ashley, Richard, Fundamentals of Applied Econometrics, Wiley, 2012.
Grading (Exams: 75%; Research project: 10%; Labs: 7.5%; Exercises: 7.5%):
· Three exams: Two mid-terms and one optional final exam
§ MT #1: Thurs, Mar 1st (last class before Spring Break)… OLS - SLR and MLR models
§ MT #2: Thurs, Apr 26th (next to last week of classes)… Estimation and Inference + additional topics
§ Optional Final: Mon May 14th, 2:30 PM (?) … covers full semester
All exam grades are curved.
Exams are open cheat-sheet (one cheat sheet allowed for each mid-term; two cheat sheets allowed for the final exam).
Optional Final Exam
- If you decide to take the optional final exam, then each mid-term exam counts for 20% of your course grade, and the final exam counts for the remaining 35%.
- If you decide not to take the optional final exam, each mid-term exam counts for 37.5% of your course grade.
You must commit to taking the final exam at the time you pick up that exam. To allow you to make a fully informed decision about whether or not to take the final exam, conditional course grades, which assume that you are not taking the final exam, will be posted to Canvas by the end of the day, Tuesday May 8th . (I have been assured that lab scores will be available no later than the 7th .)
There are no make-up exams in this course. If you miss either mid-term exam, then you must take the final exam (exam weights will be adjusted proportionately).
· Research Project (10%): Replicate and improve upon an econometric analysis that has been published in an academic journal. There are two hardcopy deliverables, both PowerPoint presentations:
Replication: PowerPoint due Thurs Apr.19th
Improvement: PowerPoint due Thurs May 3rd (last class)
We’ll have in-class presentations on May 3rd , the last class. This will be a team assignment, with three students per team. I will assign teams. Grades will be given for both individual as well as collective performance. More details below.
· EC 228 Labs (7.5%): EC 228 course-wide labs, focused on using Stata in empirical/econometric analysis. Lab scores will be curved.
· Exercises (7.5%): There will be five Exercises over the course of the semester. These will focus on empirical applications of the tools developed in the course. Feel free to work together on these, but please submit your own write-up (unless it’s a team assignment … more on this below). Course grades for Exercises will be curved. More details below.
Canvas: Boston College has in the past few years migrated away from BlackboardVista to a new course management system called Canvas. That migration has not gone smoothly for my courses. Until Canvas offers folders (a radical new concept, I know), course materials will posted to the course website: http://www.cmaxxsports.com/ec228 . Note, however, that all exercise, exam, lab and research paper scores and grades will be posted to Canvas.
If you are a student with a documented disability seeking reasonable
accommodations in this course, please contact Kathy Duggan (x2-8093;
email@example.com) at the
Academic Integrity: You will be held to Boston College’s standards of academic integrity. If you have any questions as to what that means, please go to http://www.bc.edu/offices/stserv/academic/integrity.html.
Research Project (10% of total grade): This is an empirical research project, which will kick off with team assignments after the first mid-term exam. Depending on how you count, there are two phases to the project: you will first replicate an existing published piece of econometric analysis (of your choosing),  and then improve that analysis in some way (by adding more data, changing the specification of the model, changing the estimation technique, and so forth). Topics should showcase interesting econometric analysis, and need not be restricted to topics in Economics.
Topic selection: It’s important to get off to an early start, as empirical research is always slow going!. To help you in that regard, I’ll ask teams to email me by 6 PM on March 26th, a one paragraph description of their topic/paper of interest. I will compile those and discuss them in class on the 27th .
· Phase 0: Topic Selection (discussed in class, Tues. Mar 27th )
Replication and Improvement: Your end-of-semester deliverables will be two PowerPoint presentations (or the equivalent), which should be concise and to the point; shorter is always better. I will say more about the format of the deliverables when teams are assigned.
· Phase I: Replication (due Thurs Apr. 19th)
Replicate both the summary statistics presented in the paper (to show that you have indeed replicated the construction of the dataset) as well as at least one set of regression results of interest. Leave plenty of time for this phase. You’ll find this far more challenging and time consuming than you could ever imagine.
· Phase II: Improvement (due @ last class, Thurs May 3rd )
Your turn! ... your improvement to the published analysis. This should be a lot of fun… but again, it will not go quickly or smoothly, so budget your time accordingly.
Your Phase I presentation should discuss your data sources and how your dataset was constructed; credit will reflect in part the level of difficulty. In some cases you may be able to obtain data from the original authors, which obviously greatly simplifies the replication phase. You can do that if you want, but since building datasets is hard work, you won’t get as much credit for your efforts as you would had you built the dataset yourself.
In your Phase II PowerPoint, you should brag about your outstanding improvements to the analysis, and discuss as well aspects of your analysis that did not pan out as expected. We’ll have in-class research project presentations on May 3rd , the last day of classes.
I will assign the research project teams, which will likely have three members each. Students’ grades will reflect both their individual performance as well as the quality of the final team products (the PowerPoint presentations as well as the in-class presentation).
Shirkers take notice: Peer evaluation forms will be distributed at the end of the semester, so that team members can assess each other’s performance.
Empirical work is slow going. Be sure to leave yourself enough time to complete the assignment to your satisfaction.
The Labs: There will be six or so one-hour sections of econometrics labs, taught by excellent BC Econ graduate student instructors. The lab sections will focus on the use of Stata in empirical analysis generally, and econometric analysis specifically. Lab scores, which will be curved, count towards 7.5% of your course grade.
Exercises: There will be five empirical exercises, counting towards 7.5% of your course grade. These will typically be team assignments, usually with two students per team, and are typically graded on a 10 point scale. I will assign teams, which will differ from Exercise to Exercise. Teams should submit just one Answer Set. Final grades on Exercises are curved.
In some cases, the Exercises are designed to give you practice with the techniques and tools we have developed in class… other times, they are designed to introduce you to new material, which we have not yet covered in class. These will take some time to complete, so please do not leave them until the last moment.
Course Topics [Wooldridge 4th and 5th edition chapter numbers are in square brackets (there are just a few changes with the 6th edition)]
A: Introduction to Econometrics and Empirical Research
1. The Nature of econometrics and economic data [Chapter 1]
B: Introduction to Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
2. Simple Linear Regression (SLR) Models [portions of Chapter 2.1-2.3]
3. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) Models [portions of Chapter 3.1-3.4]
Mid-Term Exam #1 (about here)
Sidetrip: Getting started with that research paper
4. Carrying out an empirical project [Chapter 19]
· The scientific method: Testing hypotheses; collecting data; running regressions; doing it all again; and again; until… conclusions
C: Review of Probability and Statistics
5. Review of foundational basics: Probability and statistics [Appendices B & C] (some of this will have been covered in Part B. above)
· Probability: Probability distributions (probability density functions (pdfs); measures of central tendencies (expectations) and variability (variances); joint and conditional distributions; measures of association (covariance and correlation); conditional expectations and variances
· Statistics (Estimation and Inference): Populations; point estimators; sampling distributions; sample means, variances, covariances and correlations; unbiasedness; interval estimators; confidence intervals; hypothesis testing
· Focus on estimation of the population mean, LUEs (Linear Unbiased Estimators), and BLUEs (Best Linear Unbiased Estimators)
D: Estimation and Inference in Regression Analysis
6. Estimation with SLR and MLR models [remainders of Chapters 2 and 3]
7. Inference in SLR and MLR analysis [Chapter 4, portions]
8. Further Issues I [portions of Chapters 6-8]
· Heteroskedasticity [Chapter 8]: Issues (OLS standard errors no longer correct; LUE but not BLUE); White-corrected standard errors (robust inference); working towards BLUE (weighted least squares… but where do those weights come from?)
· Scaling effects and beta regressions [Chapter 6]
9. Selected Topics [Handouts + portions of Chapter 15]
10. Further Issues II [portions of Chapters 5 & 6]
· OLS asymptotics [Chapter 5]: Large sample properties; consistency (convergence in distribution)
· Forecasting and prediction intervals [Chapter 6]
11. Limited dependent variables [Chapter 17]: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE); logit and probit models; censored and truncated regression models
12. More about specification and data problems [Chapter 9]
· Misspecified models; proxy variables; measurement error in dependent and independent variables; missing data; outliers; non-random samples
I can’t guarantee how exactly we will progress through the material. But based on previous semesters, here’s a likely calendar (#s refer to weeks in the semester):
Introduction to EC 228 and Econometrics
1. Syllabus; Introduction to the course; Econometrics examples
Introduction to OLS: SLR and MLR models
2. SLR Analytics; Exercise #1 distributed (due wk #4)
3. SLR Assessment
4. Finish Intro to OLS/SLR; Exercise #2 distributed (due wk #7)
5. MLR Analytics (focus on differences from SLR analytics)
6. MLR Assessment (again, focus on differences viz. SLR assessment); Distribute practice questions for MT #1
7. Finish Intro to OLS/MLR; Mid Term #1 (Intro to OLS)
Review of Probability and Statistics
8. Return MT #1s; Kick off research projects with team assignments; Review of probability and statistics; Exercise #3 distributed (due wk #9) (In the past this has taken 4.5 classes… I’m hoping to be more efficient this semester.)
Estimation and Inference
9. Finish Probability and Statistics; Intro to MLR Inference (reading regression results); Kickoff SLR and MLR models: Estimation and inference;
10. Research project topic selections; SLR and MLR models: Estimation and inference cont’d; Exercise #4 distributed (due wk #12); Thurs: Easter break
11. SLR and MLR models: Estimation and inference cont’d; Heteroskedasticity and robust standard errors
12. Dummy variables; Exercise #5 distributed (due wk #14)
13. More about dummy variables; Functional forms; Consistency; Replication PowerPoint presentations due; Distribute practice questions for MT #2
14. Selected topics; Semester wrap-up and review; Mid Term #2 (focus on material since MT #1)
15. Tues: class devoted to helping with papers; Thurs: Improvement PowerPoint presentations due; in-class presentations
Stata @ Boston College
There are a large number of statistical software packages that
you can use to do econometric analysis.
We will use Stata, one of the more popular packages and the package that
receives the most support at
I will be providing more details as the semester develops, but for now: Stata is available to BC students through the “application server”, which can be accessed at https://bcapps.bc.edu … once CitrixReceiver has been installed on your computer. (If you are not connected to the BC network, you’ll need to use VPN to access the apps server.) To learn how to access Stata through the apps server, go to http://www.bc.edu/offices/help/teaching/app_server.html .
Alternatively, and to avoid traffic jams with Citrix and the apps server, you may want to purchase a six-month Stata IC license for $45 (sorry, but small Stata will not sufficient for Ec 228). For details, go to: http://www.stata.com/order/new/edu/gradplans/student-pricing/ .
We will devote some time to learning how to use Stata to build datasets and run regressions. You will discover that building datasets is long, hard, tedious and unrewarding work… and running regressions is relatively quick, easy and fun.
As the semester progresses, you may find the following resources of interest:
Encountering Stata questions/issues/features?… just Google it (always include “UCLA”). And here are a few sites that might be helpful (the pdfs are posted to the course website):
· … and don’t forget YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stata
Examples and datasets (bcuse may be helpful here… I’ll explain in class):
Also: Ben Lambert’s full course in econometrics videos are terrific and come with British accents!
 Published here means published in an academic journal (so no unpublished senior theses, web blogs, or the like).
 If you want a sense of degree of difficulty, just ask.
 And to learn about VPN, go to http://www.bc.edu/offices/help/getstarted/network/vpn.html .